Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Moreirense host Estrela on Sat 31 Oct at 15:30. Moreirense are 10th in the table and Estrela are 12th.
The model gives Moreirense a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estrela 30%. It expects 1.5 goals from Moreirense and 1.2 from Estrela, with a 50% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Moreirense won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Estrela won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Moreirense's last 10 matches and 7 of Estrela's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Moreirense have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home Estrela have 1 win from 4, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Moreirense won 1, Estrela won 1 and 2 games ended level, averaging 2.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 2 May, finished Moreirense 3-2 Estrela.
Notable run: Estrela, conceded in the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 74%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Moreirense win | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Estrela win | 30% | 3.34 |
| Home or draw | 70% | 1.43 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 40% | 2.53 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13% | 7.65 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.11 |
| Moreirense to score | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Estrela to score | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Moreirense clean sheet | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Estrela clean sheet | 22% | 4.48 |
| Home leads at half-time | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 5.06 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 27% | 3.76 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 77% | 1.29 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 11% | 11% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Moreirense | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| Corners for / against | 2.7 / 4.8 | 4.2 / 4.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | #13 | 1.15 | 1.38 |
| Estrela | #15 | 1.12 | 1.50 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.5 goals per meeting