Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Porto host Estoril on Sat 31 Oct at 20:30. Porto are 1st in the table and Estoril are 18th.
The model gives Porto a 75% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Estoril 10%. It expects 2.4 goals from Porto and 0.7 from Estoril, with a 60% chance of three or more goals and 46% that both teams score.
Porto won 5, drew 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches; Estoril won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Porto's last 10 matches and 5 of Estoril's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Porto have 4 wins from 4, scoring 2.3 a game; away from home Estoril have 0 wins from 4, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Porto won 4, Estoril won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 12 Apr, finished Estoril 1-3 Porto.
Notable run: Porto, won the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 81%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Porto win | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Draw | 15% | 6.49 | |
| Estoril win | 10% | 10.13 |
| Home or draw | 90% | 1.11 | |
| No draw | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Away or draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 12% | 8.57 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Not both teams score | 54% | 1.85 |
| Porto to score | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Estoril to score | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 16% | 6.20 | |
| Porto clean sheet | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Estoril clean sheet | 9% | 10.72 |
| Home leads at half-time | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Level at half-time | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 11% | 9.01 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both score 1st half | 18% | 5.57 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 24% | 4.19 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 1 | 11% | 7% | ||||
| 2 | 13% | 9% | 3% | |||
| 3 | 10% | 7% | ||||
| 4 | 6% | 4% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Porto | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 100%10/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Draw | 0%0/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 0%0/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Clean sheet | 60%6/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| Corners for / against | 7 / 3.7 | 4.7 / 4.9 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | #3 | 1.83 | 0.73 |
| Estoril | #12 | 1.31 | 1.49 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting