Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Maritimo host Santa Clara on Sun 1 Nov at 18:00. Maritimo are 14th in the table and Santa Clara are 4th.
The model gives Maritimo a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Santa Clara 46%. It expects 1.0 goals from Maritimo and 1.4 from Santa Clara, with a 42% chance of three or more goals and 47% that both teams score.
Maritimo won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Santa Clara won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Maritimo's last 9 matches and 4 of Santa Clara's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Maritimo have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Santa Clara have 3 wins from 4, conceding 0.5 a game.
Notable run: Maritimo, over 1.5 goals in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 78%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Maritimo win | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Santa Clara win | 46% | 2.17 |
| Home or draw | 54% | 1.86 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 62% | 1.61 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 10.75 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Not both teams score | 53% | 1.87 |
| Maritimo to score | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Santa Clara to score | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Maritimo clean sheet | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 37% | 2.72 |
| Home leads at half-time | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Level at half-time | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Both score 1st half | 17% | 6.02 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 23% | 4.42 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72% | 1.39 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 13% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Maritimo | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%9/9 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89%8/9 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78%7/9 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%3/9 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11%1/9 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 67%6/9 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 22%2/9 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 22%2/9 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 56%5/9 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 11%1/9 | 50%5/10 |
| Failed to score | 22%2/9 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 89%8/9 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 56%5/9 | 20%2/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.11 | 0.70 |
| Corners for / against | 3.11 / 4.67 | 4 / 5.3 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | #17 | 1.16 | 1.66 |
| Santa Clara | #7 | 1.10 | 0.99 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.