Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Sp Braga host Famalicao on Sun 1 Nov at 20:30. Sp Braga are 9th in the table and Famalicao are 11th.
The model gives Sp Braga a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Famalicao 29%. It expects 1.4 goals from Sp Braga and 1.0 from Famalicao, with a 42% chance of three or more goals and 46% that both teams score.
Sp Braga won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Famalicao won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Sp Braga's last 10 matches and 5 of Famalicao's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Sp Braga have 2 wins from 4, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Famalicao have 2 wins from 5, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Sp Braga won 1, Famalicao won 0 and 3 games ended level, averaging 3.8 goals. The most recent, on Sun 19 Apr, finished Sp Braga 2-2 Famalicao.
Notable run: Famalicao, over 1.5 goals in the last 5 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Sp Braga win | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Famalicao win | 29% | 3.47 |
| Home or draw | 71% | 1.41 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 39% | 2.57 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 9% | 10.99 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Not both teams score | 54% | 1.87 |
| Sp Braga to score | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Famalicao to score | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Sp Braga clean sheet | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Famalicao clean sheet | 26% | 3.85 |
| Home leads at half-time | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Level at half-time | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Both score 1st half | 17% | 6.05 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 22% | 4.45 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 79% | 1.26 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 13% | 12% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Sp Braga | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Corners for / against | 4.6 / 2.8 | 5.4 / 4 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Braga | #4 | 1.54 | 1.04 |
| Famalicao | #6 | 1.29 | 1.00 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.8 goals per meeting