Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Benfica host Alverca on Mon 2 Nov at 20:15. Benfica are 2nd in the table and Alverca are 8th.
The model gives Benfica a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Alverca 9%. It expects 2.6 goals from Benfica and 0.8 from Alverca, with a 66% chance of three or more goals and 49% that both teams score.
Benfica won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Alverca won 3, drew 0 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Benfica's last 10 matches and 5 of Alverca's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Benfica have 3 wins from 4, scoring 2.3 a game; away from home Alverca have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Benfica won 2, Alverca won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 8 Feb, finished Benfica 2-1 Alverca.
Notable run: Benfica, over 1.5 goals in the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 85%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Benfica win | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Draw | 14% | 7.31 | |
| Alverca win | 9% | 11.15 |
| Home or draw | 91% | 1.10 | |
| No draw | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Away or draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 90% | 1.12 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 10% | 9.62 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15% | 6.57 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Not both teams score | 51% | 1.97 |
| Benfica to score | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Alverca to score | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 18% | 5.57 | |
| Benfica clean sheet | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Alverca clean sheet | 7% | 13.74 |
| Home leads at half-time | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Level at half-time | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 11% | 9.24 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.98 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 26% | 3.79 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 47% | 2.14 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 9% | 6% | ||||
| 2 | 12% | 9% | 3% | |||
| 3 | 10% | 8% | ||||
| 4 | 7% | 5% | ||||
| 5 | 3% |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Benfica | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 80%8/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 100%10/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.90 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| Corners for / against | 7.4 / 2.2 | 4.6 / 3.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | #2 | 2.26 | 0.86 |
| Alverca | #11 | 1.18 | 1.33 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting