Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Gil Vicente host Guimaraes on Mon 2 Nov at 20:15. Gil Vicente are 7th in the table and Guimaraes are 13th.
The model gives Gil Vicente a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Guimaraes 30%. It expects 1.2 goals from Gil Vicente and 1.0 from Guimaraes, with a 38% chance of three or more goals and 43% that both teams score.
Gil Vicente won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Guimaraes won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Gil Vicente's last 10 matches and 3 of Guimaraes's last 10; both teams scored in 3 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Gil Vicente have 2 wins from 5, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Guimaraes have 0 wins from 4, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Gil Vicente won 0, Guimaraes won 3 and 1 game ended level, averaging 1.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 18 Apr, finished Gil Vicente 0-1 Guimaraes.
Notable run: Gil Vicente, under 2.5 goals in the last 5 home matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 82%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Gil Vicente win | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Guimaraes win | 30% | 3.31 |
| Home or draw | 70% | 1.43 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Away or draw | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 42% | 2.40 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.12 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 5.59 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 7% | 13.97 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Not both teams score | 57% | 1.76 |
| Gil Vicente to score | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Guimaraes to score | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Gil Vicente clean sheet | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Guimaraes clean sheet | 30% | 3.38 |
| Home leads at half-time | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Level at half-time | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Both score 1st half | 15% | 6.73 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 20% | 4.91 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 21% | 4.83 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 79% | 1.26 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 12% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 14% | 13% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 3% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Gil Vicente | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Corners for / against | 3 / 5.2 | 5.8 / 3.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | #8 | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Guimaraes | #9 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.5 goals per meeting