Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Famalicao host Arouca on Fri 6 Nov at 20:45. Famalicao are 11th in the table and Arouca are 5th.
The model gives Famalicao a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arouca 25%. It expects 1.5 goals from Famalicao and 1.0 from Arouca, with a 45% chance of three or more goals and 48% that both teams score.
Famalicao won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Arouca won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Famalicao's last 10 matches and 5 of Arouca's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Famalicao have 0 wins from 4, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Arouca have 2 wins from 5, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Famalicao won 2, Arouca won 0 and 2 games ended level, averaging 1.5 goals. The most recent, on Fri 6 Mar, finished Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Notable run: Famalicao, over 1.5 goals in the last 5 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Famalicao win | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Arouca win | 25% | 3.98 |
| Home or draw | 75% | 1.34 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 33% | 3.00 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.28 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Not both teams score | 52% | 1.92 |
| Famalicao to score | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Arouca to score | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Famalicao clean sheet | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Arouca clean sheet | 22% | 4.55 |
| Home leads at half-time | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both score 1st half | 17% | 5.72 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 24% | 4.23 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 65% | 1.54 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 13% | 12% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Famalicao | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Draw | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| Corners for / against | 5.4 / 4 | 3.3 / 5.2 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | #6 | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Arouca | #10 | 1.29 | 1.35 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.5 goals per meeting