Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Alverca host Casa Pia on Sat 7 Nov at 18:00. Alverca are 8th in the table and Casa Pia are 16th.
The model gives Alverca a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Casa Pia 25%. It expects 1.5 goals from Alverca and 1.0 from Casa Pia, with a 44% chance of three or more goals and 47% that both teams score.
Alverca won 3, drew 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Casa Pia won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Alverca's last 10 matches and 3 of Casa Pia's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Alverca have 1 win from 5, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Casa Pia have 2 wins from 5, conceding 0.8 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 12 Apr, finished Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia.
Notable run: Alverca, no draw in the last 5 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Alverca win | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Casa Pia win | 25% | 3.97 |
| Home or draw | 75% | 1.34 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away or draw | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 34% | 2.98 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10% | 10.03 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Not both teams score | 53% | 1.88 |
| Alverca to score | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Casa Pia to score | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Alverca clean sheet | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 23% | 4.37 |
| Home leads at half-time | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Level at half-time | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Both score 1st half | 17% | 5.94 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 23% | 4.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64% | 1.55 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 14% | 12% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Corners for / against | 4.6 / 3.8 | 4.6 / 5.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | #11 | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| Casa Pia | #16 | 0.95 | 1.44 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting