Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Nacional host Academico Viseu on Sat 7 Nov at 15:30. Nacional are 15th in the table and Academico Viseu are 6th.
The model gives Nacional a 27% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Academico Viseu 48%. It expects 1.0 goals from Nacional and 1.5 from Academico Viseu, with a 46% chance of three or more goals and 49% that both teams score.
Nacional won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Academico Viseu won 5, drew 0 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Nacional's last 10 matches and 6 of Academico Viseu's last 9; both teams scored in 4 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Nacional have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.2 a game; away from home Academico Viseu have 3 wins from 5, conceding 1.0 a game.
Notable run: Nacional, no draw in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Nacional win | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Academico Viseu win | 48% | 2.07 |
| Home or draw | 52% | 1.94 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away or draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 64% | 1.56 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.17 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Not both teams score | 51% | 1.95 |
| Nacional to score | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Academico Viseu to score | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Nacional clean sheet | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Academico Viseu clean sheet | 36% | 2.78 |
| Home leads at half-time | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Both score 1st half | 18% | 5.62 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 24% | 4.15 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 63% | 1.58 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 13% | 9% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 9% | 12% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 6% | 5% | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Nacional | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%9/9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 78%7/9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 67%6/9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 22%2/9 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 0%0/9 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 56%5/9 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 56%5/9 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 22%2/9 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 22%2/9 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 22%2/9 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 22%2/9 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 89%8/9 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 33%3/9 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.80 | 1.22 |
| Corners for / against | 4.1 / 5 | 2.33 / 5.78 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | #14 | 1.09 | 1.38 |
| Academico Viseu | #5 | 1.43 | 1.09 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.