Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Sp Lisbon host Moreirense on Sat 7 Nov at 20:30. Sp Lisbon are 3rd in the table and Moreirense are 10th.
The model gives Sp Lisbon a 79% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Moreirense 8%. It expects 2.8 goals from Sp Lisbon and 0.8 from Moreirense, with a 69% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.
Sp Lisbon won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Moreirense won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Sp Lisbon's last 10 matches and 6 of Moreirense's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Sp Lisbon have 3 wins from 5, scoring 2.2 a game; away from home Moreirense have 2 wins from 5, conceding 1.6 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Sp Lisbon won 3, Moreirense won 1 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.3 goals. The most recent, on Sat 21 Feb, finished Moreirense 0-3 Sp Lisbon.
Notable run: Sp Lisbon, over 1.5 goals in the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home win, 79%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Sp Lisbon win | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Draw | 13% | 7.95 | |
| Moreirense win | 8% | 12.09 |
| Home or draw | 92% | 1.09 | |
| No draw | 87% | 1.14 | |
| Away or draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 9% | 10.57 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 98% | 1.02 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13% | 7.66 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Not both teams score | 49% | 2.04 |
| Sp Lisbon to score | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Moreirense to score | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 19% | 5.29 | |
| Sp Lisbon clean sheet | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Moreirense clean sheet | 6% | 16.31 |
| Home leads at half-time | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Level at half-time | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 10% | 9.53 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.68 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 80% | 1.25 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 8% | 6% | ||||
| 2 | 11% | 9% | 3% | |||
| 3 | 10% | 8% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 7% | 6% | ||||
| 5 | 4% | 3% |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Sp Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 | WDLLL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 | DDWLW |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDLLL |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 | LLLLW |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 | DLWLW |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 | DLLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Sp Lisbon | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 0%0/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.40 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| Corners for / against | 5.3 / 2.4 | 2.7 / 4.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon | #1 | 2.33 | 0.92 |
| Moreirense | #13 | 1.15 | 1.38 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.3 goals per meeting