Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Celtic host Dundee United on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Celtic are 1st in the table and Dundee United are 4th.
The model gives Celtic a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Dundee United 9%. It expects 2.7 goals from Celtic and 0.8 from Dundee United, with a 67% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.
Celtic won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Dundee United won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Celtic's last 10 matches and 5 of Dundee United's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Celtic have 4 wins from 5, scoring 2.6 a game; away from home Dundee United have 2 wins from 5, conceding 1.6 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Celtic won 4, Dundee United won 2 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.2 goals. The most recent, on Sun 22 Mar, finished Dundee United 2-0 Celtic.
Notable run: Celtic, no draw in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home win, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Celtic win | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Draw | 14% | 7.12 | |
| Dundee United win | 9% | 11.70 |
| Home or draw | 91% | 1.09 | |
| No draw | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Away or draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 10% | 10.05 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 7.08 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Not both teams score | 50% | 2.02 |
| Celtic to score | 93% | 1.07 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Dundee United to score | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 19% | 5.40 | |
| Celtic clean sheet | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Dundee United clean sheet | 7% | 14.45 |
| Home leads at half-time | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Level at half-time | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 11% | 9.23 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.65 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 84% | 1.18 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 26% | 3.81 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 50% | 2.02 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | |||||
| 1 | 9% | 7% | ||||
| 2 | 11% | 9% | 3% | |||
| 3 | 10% | 8% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 7% | 5% | ||||
| 5 | 4% |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 77% | 1.26 | 1.29 | -2.5% |
| Dundee United win | 9% | 9.08 | 11.70 | -22.4% |
| Draw | 14% | 5.93 | 7.12 | -16.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.33 | 1.49 | -10.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.11 | 3.04 | +2.4% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25:6 | +19 | 27 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | +10 | 23 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Hearts | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22:15 | +7 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | +2 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 13 | LLLLW |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 11 | WDLWL |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10:23 | -13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Celtic | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 90%9/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 0%0/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 100%10/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.50 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Corners for / against | 8.7 / 3.6 | 6 / 5.9 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | #1 | 2.23 | 0.95 |
| Dundee United | #7 | 1.27 | 1.43 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.2 goals per meeting