Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Dundee host Kilmarnock on Wed 28 Oct at 19:45. Dundee are 5th in the table and Kilmarnock are 11th.
The model gives Dundee a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kilmarnock 26%. It expects 1.9 goals from Dundee and 1.3 from Kilmarnock, with a 61% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Dundee won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Kilmarnock won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Dundee's last 10 matches and 6 of Kilmarnock's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 5 respectively.
At home this season Dundee have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.6 a game; away from home Kilmarnock have 1 win from 5, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Dundee won 1, Kilmarnock won 2 and 3 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Tue 12 May, finished Kilmarnock 3-1 Dundee.
Notable run: Dundee, over 1.5 goals in the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 82%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Dundee win | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Kilmarnock win | 26% | 3.89 |
| Home or draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| No draw | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Away or draw | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 33% | 3.02 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Not both teams score | 39% | 2.55 |
| Dundee to score | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Kilmarnock to score | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Dundee clean sheet | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 15% | 6.59 |
| Home leads at half-time | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Level at half-time | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both score 1st half | 26% | 3.89 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 32% | 3.17 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 50% | 1.99 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 6% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee win | 52% | 1.92 | 1.92 | -0.2% |
| Kilmarnock win | 26% | 3.48 | 3.89 | -10.5% |
| Draw | 22% | 3.70 | 4.48 | -17.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.56 | 1.64 | -4.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.32 | 2.56 | -9.5% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25:6 | +19 | 27 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17:7 | +10 | 23 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Hearts | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22:15 | +7 | 19 | LDWLW |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 15 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | +2 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 13 | LLLLW |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 11 | WDLWL |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10:23 | -13 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10:16 | -6 | 7 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Dundee | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.20 | 2.30 |
| Corners for / against | 4.9 / 6.3 | 4.9 / 6.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | #9 | 1.31 | 1.53 |
| Kilmarnock | #12 | 1.28 | 1.72 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting