Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Ath Bilbao host Sociedad on Sun 1 Nov. Ath Bilbao are 8th in the table and Sociedad are 5th.
The model gives Ath Bilbao a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sociedad 26%. It expects 1.7 goals from Ath Bilbao and 1.1 from Sociedad, with a 53% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Ath Bilbao won 1, drew 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Sociedad won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Ath Bilbao's last 10 matches and 8 of Sociedad's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Ath Bilbao have 2 wins from 5, scoring 1.8 a game; away from home Sociedad have 3 wins from 5, conceding 2.2 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Ath Bilbao won 1, Sociedad won 1 and 2 games ended level, averaging 2.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 1 Feb, finished Ath Bilbao 1-1 Sociedad.
Notable run: Sociedad, no draw in the last 6 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Ath Bilbao win | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Sociedad win | 26% | 3.86 |
| Home or draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Away or draw | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 35% | 2.89 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.54 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.26 |
| Ath Bilbao to score | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Sociedad to score | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Ath Bilbao clean sheet | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Sociedad clean sheet | 19% | 5.25 |
| Home leads at half-time | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Level at half-time | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.99 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.44 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64% | 1.55 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 6% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | +29 | 27 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Ath Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | +15 | 24 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | WDWLD |
| 5 | Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | +1 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | +3 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 8 | Ath Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 12 | DDDLW |
| 9 | Celta | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 11 | La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LDLWL |
| 13 | Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | -11 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:19 | -3 | 10 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | LWDDW |
| 16 | Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:20 | -8 | 9 | LWDDL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 9 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Espanol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:14 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | -10 | 6 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 5 | LLDLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Ath Bilbao | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 50%5/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| Corners for / against | 5.5 / 4 | 6.5 / 4.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao | #7 | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| Sociedad | #8 | 1.51 | 1.44 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.0 goals per meeting