Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Elche host Valencia on Sun 1 Nov. Elche are 15th in the table and Valencia are 19th.
The model gives Elche a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Valencia 24%. It expects 1.6 goals from Elche and 1.1 from Valencia, with a 50% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Elche won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Valencia won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Elche's last 10 matches and 5 of Valencia's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Elche have 0 wins from 4, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home Valencia have 1 win from 4, conceding 1.5 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Elche won 1, Valencia won 0 and 1 game ended level, averaging 1.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 11 Apr, finished Elche 1-0 Valencia.
Notable run: Valencia, without a win in the last 6 home matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Elche win | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Valencia win | 24% | 4.14 |
| Home or draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Away or draw | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 32% | 3.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 7.39 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.40 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.13 |
| Elche to score | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Valencia to score | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Elche clean sheet | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Valencia clean sheet | 20% | 5.11 |
| Home leads at half-time | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.37 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 27% | 3.68 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73% | 1.38 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 7% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 11% | 12% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | +29 | 27 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Ath Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | +15 | 24 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | WDWLD |
| 5 | Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | +1 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | +3 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 8 | Ath Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 12 | DDDLW |
| 9 | Celta | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 11 | La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LDLWL |
| 13 | Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | -11 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:19 | -3 | 10 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | LWDDW |
| 16 | Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:20 | -8 | 9 | LWDDL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 9 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Espanol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:14 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | -10 | 6 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 5 | LLDLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Elche | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Win | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Draw | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Corners for / against | 4.4 / 4.5 | 4.2 / 4.9 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | #10 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Valencia | #17 | 1.16 | 1.33 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
1.5 goals per meeting