Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Santander host Real Madrid on Sun 1 Nov. Santander are 13th in the table and Real Madrid are 3rd.
The model gives Santander a 14% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Real Madrid 70%. It expects 1.2 goals from Santander and 2.8 from Real Madrid, with a 76% chance of three or more goals and 66% that both teams score.
Santander won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Real Madrid won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Santander's last 10 matches and 8 of Real Madrid's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Santander have 3 wins from 5, scoring 2.2 a game; away from home Real Madrid have 3 wins from 5, conceding 1.4 a game.
Notable run: Santander, conceded in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 2.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Santander win | 14% | 7.19 | |
| Draw | 16% | 6.13 | |
| Real Madrid win | 70% | 1.43 |
| Home or draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| No draw | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Away or draw | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 17% | 6.02 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 98% | 1.02 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9% | 11.05 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.29 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Not both teams score | 34% | 2.94 |
| Santander to score | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Real Madrid to score | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Santander clean sheet | 6% | 15.97 | |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 30% | 3.35 |
| Home leads at half-time | 16% | 6.18 | |
| Level at half-time | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both score 1st half | 29% | 3.51 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 90% | 1.12 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 39% | 2.55 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 39% | 2.59 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | ||
| 1 | 7% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 3% | |
| 2 | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | +29 | 27 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Ath Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | +15 | 24 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | WDWLD |
| 5 | Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | +1 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | +3 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 8 | Ath Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 12 | DDDLW |
| 9 | Celta | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 11 | La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LDLWL |
| 13 | Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | -11 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:19 | -3 | 10 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | LWDDW |
| 16 | Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:20 | -8 | 9 | LWDDL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 9 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Espanol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:14 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | -10 | 6 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 5 | LLDLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Santander | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 0%0/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Corners for / against | 5.1 / 7.8 | 6.4 / 4 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santander | #19 | 1.45 | 2.03 |
| Real Madrid | #2 | 2.06 | 0.94 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.