Pre-match probabilities
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Villarreal host Espanol on Sun 1 Nov. Villarreal are 10th in the table and Espanol are 18th.
The model gives Villarreal a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Espanol 16%. It expects 2.0 goals from Villarreal and 0.9 from Espanol, with a 57% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Villarreal won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Espanol won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Villarreal's last 10 matches and 6 of Espanol's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Villarreal have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.5 a game; away from home Espanol have 1 win from 5, conceding 1.4 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Villarreal won 4, Espanol won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.8 goals. The most recent, on Mon 9 Feb, finished Villarreal 4-1 Espanol.
Notable run: Villarreal, conceded in the last 6 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 84%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Villarreal win | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Draw | 21% | 4.68 | |
| Espanol win | 16% | 6.33 |
| Home or draw | 84% | 1.19 | |
| No draw | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Away or draw | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 20% | 4.98 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.64 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.11 |
| Villarreal to score | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Espanol to score | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Espanol clean sheet | 13% | 7.65 |
| Home leads at half-time | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Level at half-time | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 16% | 6.26 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.19 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.60 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 60% | 1.68 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 4% | ||||
| 1 | 10% | 10% | 4% | |||
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 7% | 7% | 3% | |||
| 4 | 4% | 3% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | +29 | 27 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Ath Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | +15 | 24 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | WDWLD |
| 5 | Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | +1 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | +3 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 8 | Ath Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 12 | DDDLW |
| 9 | Celta | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 11 | La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LDLWL |
| 13 | Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | -11 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:19 | -3 | 10 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | LWDDW |
| 16 | Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:20 | -8 | 9 | LWDDL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 9 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Espanol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:14 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | -10 | 6 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 5 | LLDLD |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Villarreal | Espanol |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Corners for / against | 7.3 / 4.6 | 2.5 / 5.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | #4 | 1.78 | 1.21 |
| Espanol | #15 | 1.15 | 1.29 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.8 goals per meeting