Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Goteborg host Djurgarden on Wed 28 Oct at 18:00. Goteborg are 9th in the table and Djurgarden are 3rd.
The model gives Goteborg a 24% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Djurgarden 52%. It expects 1.1 goals from Goteborg and 1.7 from Djurgarden, with a 54% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Goteborg won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches; Djurgarden won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Goteborg's last 10 matches and 5 of Djurgarden's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Goteborg have 6 wins from 12, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home Djurgarden have 9 wins from 12, conceding 0.6 a game.
In their last 5 league meetings, Goteborg won 0, Djurgarden won 3 and 2 games ended level, averaging 3.2 goals. The most recent, on Mon 4 May, finished Djurgarden 6-0 Goteborg.
Notable run: Djurgarden, over 1.5 goals in the last 11 home matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Goteborg win | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Djurgarden win | 52% | 1.91 |
| Home or draw | 48% | 2.10 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Away or draw | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 69% | 1.45 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16% | 6.43 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Not both teams score | 45% | 2.20 |
| Goteborg to score | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Djurgarden to score | 82% | 1.21 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Goteborg clean sheet | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Djurgarden clean sheet | 34% | 2.97 |
| Home leads at half-time | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.77 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.61 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 10% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 10% | 6% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg win | 24% | 3.21 | 4.20 | -23.5% |
| Djurgarden win | 52% | 2.00 | 1.91 | +4.8% |
| Draw | 24% | 3.64 | 4.20 | -13.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | – | 1.87 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | – | 2.15 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 56:32 | +24 | 55 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Hammarby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52:21 | +31 | 49 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 52:23 | +29 | 48 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 47:30 | +17 | 45 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 37:24 | +13 | 42 | WWWDD |
| 6 | Vasteras SK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36:38 | -2 | 38 | WWLWL |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 38:34 | +4 | 37 | WLWLD |
| 8 | AIK | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40:43 | -3 | 37 | DLLDW |
| 9 | Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 35:44 | -9 | 37 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 39:43 | -4 | 33 | LLWLW |
| 11 | GAIS | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31:26 | +5 | 31 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Mjallby | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 28:42 | -14 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 13 | Kalmar | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 23:41 | -18 | 22 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Degerfors | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 21:41 | -20 | 20 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Orgryte | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 31:56 | -25 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 18:46 | -28 | 17 | LWLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Goteborg | Djurgarden |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.60 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.10 | 0.70 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg | #10 | 1.36 | 1.40 |
| Djurgarden | #2 | 1.84 | 1.03 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.2 goals per meeting