Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Halmstad host Malmo FF on Wed 28 Oct at 18:00. Halmstad are 16th in the table and Malmo FF are 7th.
The model gives Halmstad a 18% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Malmo FF 57%. It expects 0.8 goals from Halmstad and 1.7 from Malmo FF, with a 46% chance of three or more goals and 46% that both teams score.
Halmstad won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Malmo FF won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Halmstad's last 10 matches and 3 of Malmo FF's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 2 respectively.
At home this season Halmstad have 3 wins from 12, scoring 0.8 a game; away from home Malmo FF have 6 wins from 12, conceding 1.1 a game.
In their last 5 league meetings, Halmstad won 0, Malmo FF won 5 and 0 games ended level, averaging 4.2 goals. The most recent, on Sat 30 May, finished Malmo FF 5-2 Halmstad.
Notable run: Halmstad, conceded in the last 13 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Away or draw, 82%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Halmstad win | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Malmo FF win | 57% | 1.74 |
| Home or draw | 43% | 2.35 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 76% | 1.32 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.23 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Not both teams score | 54% | 1.84 |
| Halmstad to score | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 20% | 5.00 | |
| Malmo FF to score | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Halmstad clean sheet | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Malmo FF clean sheet | 44% | 2.28 |
| Home leads at half-time | 17% | 6.02 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Both score 1st half | 16% | 6.10 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 22% | 4.56 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 14% | 12% | 6% | ||
| 1 | 7% | 11% | 9% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 4% | ||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad win | 18% | 4.41 | 5.46 | -19.2% |
| Malmo FF win | 57% | 1.65 | 1.74 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 24% | 3.93 | 4.13 | -4.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | – | 2.20 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | – | 1.84 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 56:32 | +24 | 55 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Hammarby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52:21 | +31 | 49 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 52:23 | +29 | 48 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 47:30 | +17 | 45 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 37:24 | +13 | 42 | WWWDD |
| 6 | Vasteras SK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36:38 | -2 | 38 | WWLWL |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 38:34 | +4 | 37 | WLWLD |
| 8 | AIK | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40:43 | -3 | 37 | DLLDW |
| 9 | Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 35:44 | -9 | 37 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 39:43 | -4 | 33 | LLWLW |
| 11 | GAIS | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31:26 | +5 | 31 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Mjallby | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 28:42 | -14 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 13 | Kalmar | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 23:41 | -18 | 22 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Degerfors | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 21:41 | -20 | 20 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Orgryte | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 31:56 | -25 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 18:46 | -28 | 17 | LWLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Halmstad | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 0%0/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Failed to score | 50%5/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 0.90 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halmstad | #16 | 0.91 | 1.59 |
| Malmo FF | #4 | 1.57 | 1.17 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
4.2 goals per meeting