Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Elversberg host Mainz on Fri 30 Oct at 20:30. Elversberg are 8th in the table and Mainz are 7th.
The model gives Elversberg a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mainz 34%. It expects 1.8 goals from Elversberg and 1.6 from Mainz, with a 67% chance of three or more goals and 67% that both teams score.
Elversberg won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Mainz won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Elversberg's last 7 matches and 7 of Mainz's last 10; both teams scored in 4 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Elversberg have 2 wins from 3, scoring 2.7 a game; away from home Mainz have 3 wins from 3, conceding 1.0 a game.
Notable run: Mainz, unbeaten in the last 9 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Both teams score, 67%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Elversberg win | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Mainz win | 34% | 2.96 |
| Home or draw | 66% | 1.51 | |
| No draw | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Away or draw | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 44% | 2.27 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 7.16 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Not both teams score | 33% | 3.07 |
| Elversberg to score | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Mainz to score | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Elversberg clean sheet | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Mainz clean sheet | 16% | 6.21 |
| Home leads at half-time | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Level at half-time | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both score 1st half | 29% | 3.48 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 37% | 2.69 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 65% | 1.54 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 6% | 10% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 5% | 9% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Elversberg | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 86%6/7 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%5/7 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71%5/7 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57%4/7 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 43%3/7 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 57%4/7 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 43%3/7 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 14%1/7 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 43%3/7 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 14%1/7 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 43%3/7 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 57%4/7 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 43%3/7 | 70%7/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.71 | 2.10 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.14 | 1.70 |
| Corners for / against | 4 / 7.43 | 5.2 / 5.1 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | #10 | 1.69 | 1.72 |
| Mainz | #8 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.