Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Augsburg host Freiburg on Sat 31 Oct at 15:30. Augsburg are 9th in the table and Freiburg are 3rd.
The model gives Augsburg a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Freiburg 36%. It expects 1.6 goals from Augsburg and 1.5 from Freiburg, with a 59% chance of three or more goals and 62% that both teams score.
Augsburg won 0, drew 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Freiburg won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Augsburg's last 10 matches and 8 of Freiburg's last 10; both teams scored in 8 and 8 respectively.
At home this season Augsburg have 1 win from 4, scoring 2.0 a game; away from home Freiburg have 1 win from 3, conceding 1.3 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Augsburg won 1, Freiburg won 1 and 2 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 18 Jan, finished Augsburg 2-2 Freiburg.
Notable run: Augsburg, over 1.5 goals in the last 19 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 81%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Augsburg win | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Freiburg win | 36% | 2.80 |
| Home or draw | 64% | 1.56 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Away or draw | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 48% | 2.10 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.18 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Not both teams score | 38% | 2.61 |
| Augsburg to score | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Freiburg to score | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Augsburg clean sheet | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Freiburg clean sheet | 21% | 4.78 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Level at half-time | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both score 1st half | 25% | 4.07 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 32% | 3.10 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 65% | 1.55 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Augsburg | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.90 | 1.40 |
| Corners for / against | 5.4 / 5.6 | 4.2 / 3.8 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | #11 | 1.44 | 1.54 |
| Freiburg | #6 | 1.61 | 1.45 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting