Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Bayern Munich host Dortmund on Sat 31 Oct at 18:30. Bayern Munich are 1st in the table and Dortmund are 2nd.
The model gives Bayern Munich a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Dortmund 16%. It expects 2.5 goals from Bayern Munich and 1.2 from Dortmund, with a 72% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Bayern Munich won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches; Dortmund won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Bayern Munich's last 10 matches and 4 of Dortmund's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 3 respectively.
At home this season Bayern Munich have 3 wins from 3, scoring 6.0 a game; away from home Dortmund have 2 wins from 3, conceding 0.7 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Bayern Munich won 2, Dortmund won 0 and 2 games ended level, averaging 3.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 28 Feb, finished Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Munich.
Notable run: Bayern Munich, unbeaten in the last 20 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 84%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Bayern Munich win | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Draw | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Dortmund win | 16% | 6.11 |
| Home or draw | 84% | 1.20 | |
| No draw | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Away or draw | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 20% | 4.99 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11% | 9.00 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Not both teams score | 35% | 2.84 |
| Bayern Munich to score | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Dortmund to score | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Bayern Munich clean sheet | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Dortmund clean sheet | 8% | 12.30 |
| Home leads at half-time | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Level at half-time | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 18% | 5.63 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both score 1st half | 28% | 3.52 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 36% | 2.74 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57% | 1.76 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 6% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 6% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 4 | 4% | 5% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Bayern Munich | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Win | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 0%0/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 40%4/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| Corners for / against | 8.5 / 3.7 | 5.4 / 3.6 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | #1 | 3.16 | 1.06 |
| Dortmund | #2 | 1.90 | 1.06 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.5 goals per meeting