Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Leverkusen host Stuttgart on Sat 31 Oct at 15:30. Leverkusen are 4th in the table and Stuttgart are 15th.
The model gives Leverkusen a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Stuttgart 27%. It expects 2.1 goals from Leverkusen and 1.5 from Stuttgart, with a 70% chance of three or more goals and 69% that both teams score.
Leverkusen won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Stuttgart won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Leverkusen's last 10 matches and 7 of Stuttgart's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Leverkusen have 3 wins from 3, scoring 2.7 a game; away from home Stuttgart have 1 win from 4, conceding 2.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Leverkusen won 1, Stuttgart won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 4.0 goals. The most recent, on Sat 9 May, finished Stuttgart 3-1 Leverkusen.
Notable run: Leverkusen, over 1.5 goals in the last 12 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 73%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Leverkusen win | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Draw | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Stuttgart win | 27% | 3.69 |
| Home or draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| No draw | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Away or draw | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 35% | 2.88 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12% | 8.20 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.94 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Not both teams score | 31% | 3.18 |
| Leverkusen to score | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Stuttgart to score | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Leverkusen clean sheet | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Stuttgart clean sheet | 12% | 8.16 |
| Home leads at half-time | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Level at half-time | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both score 1st half | 30% | 3.34 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 39% | 2.60 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 57% | 1.75 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 5% | 9% | 6% | 3% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 3 | 4% | 6% | 5% | |||
| 4 | 3% | |||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Leverkusen | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.70 | 1.90 |
| Corners for / against | 6.8 / 3.8 | 6.4 / 5.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen | #3 | 1.97 | 1.33 |
| Stuttgart | #5 | 1.88 | 1.42 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
4.0 goals per meeting