Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
M'gladbach host Paderborn on Sat 31 Oct at 15:30. M'gladbach are 18th in the table and Paderborn are 13th.
The model gives M'gladbach a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Paderborn 30%. It expects 1.4 goals from M'gladbach and 1.2 from Paderborn, with a 48% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
M'gladbach won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches; Paderborn won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of M'gladbach's last 10 matches and 3 of Paderborn's last 7; both teams scored in 6 and 2 respectively.
At home this season M'gladbach have 0 wins from 3, scoring 2.3 a game; away from home Paderborn have 0 wins from 3, conceding 1.7 a game.
Notable run: M'gladbach, no draw in the last 10 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 74%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| M'gladbach win | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Paderborn win | 30% | 3.29 |
| Home or draw | 70% | 1.44 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Away or draw | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 42% | 2.39 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.28 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.12 |
| M'gladbach to score | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Paderborn to score | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 33% | 3.07 | |
| M'gladbach clean sheet | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Paderborn clean sheet | 24% | 4.14 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Level at half-time | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both score 1st half | 19% | 5.19 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 26% | 3.89 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 80% | 1.25 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | M'gladbach | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 86%6/7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 57%4/7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 43%3/7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 29%2/7 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 0%0/7 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 29%2/7 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 29%2/7 |
| Draw | 0%0/10 | 29%2/7 |
| Loss | 70%7/10 | 43%3/7 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 29%2/7 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 57%4/7 |
| Goal in 1st half | 90%9/10 | 71%5/7 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 29%2/7 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.70 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.50 | 1.29 |
| Corners for / against | 4.6 / 5.1 | 4.57 / 5.71 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| M'gladbach | #15 | 1.42 | 1.67 |
| Paderborn | #13 | 1.17 | 1.34 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.