Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Union Berlin host FC Koln on Sun 1 Nov at 15:30. Union Berlin are 17th in the table and FC Koln are 12th.
The model gives Union Berlin a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC Koln 32%. It expects 1.5 goals from Union Berlin and 1.3 from FC Koln, with a 53% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Union Berlin won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; FC Koln won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Union Berlin's last 10 matches and 7 of FC Koln's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 8 respectively.
At home this season Union Berlin have 1 win from 4, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home FC Koln have 0 wins from 3, conceding 2.3 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Union Berlin won 1, FC Koln won 0 and 1 game ended level, averaging 2.5 goals. The most recent, on Sat 2 May, finished Union Berlin 2-2 FC Koln.
Notable run: FC Koln, without a win in the last 10 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Union Berlin win | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| FC Koln win | 32% | 3.10 |
| Home or draw | 68% | 1.48 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 44% | 2.29 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.59 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Not both teams score | 43% | 2.32 |
| Union Berlin to score | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| FC Koln to score | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 27% | 3.66 | |
| FC Koln clean sheet | 22% | 4.48 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Level at half-time | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.61 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.49 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 60% | 1.68 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 9% | 12% | 8% | 3% | ||
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Union Berlin | FC Koln |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 30%3/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Corners for / against | 3.9 / 6.1 | 5.8 / 5.4 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | #18 | 1.21 | 1.59 |
| FC Koln | #16 | 1.36 | 1.66 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.5 goals per meeting