Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Hamburg host M'gladbach on Fri 6 Nov at 20:30. Hamburg are 11th in the table and M'gladbach are 18th.
The model gives Hamburg a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and M'gladbach 33%. It expects 1.5 goals from Hamburg and 1.3 from M'gladbach, with a 54% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Hamburg won 3, drew 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; M'gladbach won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Hamburg's last 10 matches and 9 of M'gladbach's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Hamburg have 2 wins from 3, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home M'gladbach have 1 win from 4, conceding 3.0 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Hamburg won 0, M'gladbach won 0 and 2 games ended level, averaging 0.0 goals. The most recent, on Sat 17 Jan, finished Hamburg 0-0 M'gladbach.
Notable run: Hamburg, conceded in the last 11 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 78%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Hamburg win | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| M'gladbach win | 33% | 3.00 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.50 | |
| No draw | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Away or draw | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 45% | 2.22 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16% | 6.33 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.46 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Not both teams score | 42% | 2.37 |
| Hamburg to score | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| M'gladbach to score | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Hamburg clean sheet | 26% | 3.81 | |
| M'gladbach clean sheet | 22% | 4.47 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Level at half-time | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.51 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.42 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 64% | 1.57 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 8% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Hamburg | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 40%4/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 60%6/10 | 90%9/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Corners for / against | 3.5 / 6.3 | 4.6 / 5.1 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg | #17 | 1.20 | 1.57 |
| M'gladbach | #15 | 1.42 | 1.67 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
0.0 goals per meeting