Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Dortmund host Elversberg on Sat 7 Nov at 15:30. Dortmund are 2nd in the table and Elversberg are 8th.
The model gives Dortmund a 67% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Elversberg 15%. It expects 2.5 goals from Dortmund and 1.1 from Elversberg, with a 68% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Dortmund won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches; Elversberg won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Dortmund's last 10 matches and 5 of Elversberg's last 7; both teams scored in 3 and 4 respectively.
At home this season Dortmund have 3 wins from 4, scoring 2.0 a game; away from home Elversberg have 1 win from 4, conceding 2.0 a game.
Notable run: Dortmund, unbeaten in the last 9 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 2.5 goals, 68%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Dortmund win | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Draw | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Elversberg win | 15% | 6.89 |
| Home or draw | 85% | 1.17 | |
| No draw | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Away or draw | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 18% | 5.63 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 97% | 1.03 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13% | 7.68 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Not both teams score | 40% | 2.53 |
| Dortmund to score | 91% | 1.09 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Elversberg to score | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Dortmund clean sheet | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Elversberg clean sheet | 9% | 11.57 |
| Home leads at half-time | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Level at half-time | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 16% | 6.21 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both score 1st half | 26% | 3.92 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 33% | 3.03 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 46% | 2.18 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | |||||
| 1 | 7% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 7% | 8% | 4% | |||
| 4 | 4% | 5% | ||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Dortmund | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 86%6/7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 71%5/7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 71%5/7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 57%4/7 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 43%3/7 |
| Both teams score | 30%3/10 | 57%4/7 |
| Win | 70%7/10 | 43%3/7 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 14%1/7 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 43%3/7 |
| Clean sheet | 60%6/10 | 14%1/7 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 43%3/7 |
| Goal in 1st half | 40%4/10 | 57%4/7 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 20%2/10 | 43%3/7 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.70 | 1.71 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.70 | 2.14 |
| Corners for / against | 5.4 / 3.6 | 4 / 7.43 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | #2 | 1.90 | 1.06 |
| Elversberg | #10 | 1.69 | 1.72 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.