Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Mainz host Bayern Munich on Sat 7 Nov at 15:30. Mainz are 7th in the table and Bayern Munich are 1st.
The model gives Mainz a 15% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Bayern Munich 69%. It expects 1.2 goals from Mainz and 2.7 from Bayern Munich, with a 76% chance of three or more goals and 67% that both teams score.
Mainz won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Bayern Munich won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Mainz's last 10 matches and 8 of Bayern Munich's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Mainz have 0 wins from 4, scoring 1.5 a game; away from home Bayern Munich have 2 wins from 4, conceding 1.0 a game.
In their last 4 league meetings, Mainz won 1, Bayern Munich won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 4.3 goals. The most recent, on Sat 25 Apr, finished Mainz 3-4 Bayern Munich.
Notable run: Bayern Munich, unbeaten in the last 20 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 2.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Mainz win | 15% | 6.85 | |
| Draw | 17% | 5.99 | |
| Bayern Munich win | 69% | 1.46 |
| Home or draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| No draw | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Away or draw | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 18% | 5.71 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 82% | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 98% | 1.02 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9% | 11.01 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Not both teams score | 33% | 2.99 |
| Mainz to score | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Bayern Munich to score | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Mainz clean sheet | 6% | 15.46 | |
| Bayern Munich clean sheet | 29% | 3.44 |
| Home leads at half-time | 17% | 5.97 | |
| Level at half-time | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both score 1st half | 30% | 3.32 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 89% | 1.13 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 38% | 2.60 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 66% | 1.52 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 4% | ||
| 1 | 7% | 9% | 8% | 5% | ||
| 2 | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
No bookmaker odds published for this match yet; they usually appear a few days before kick-off. Fair odds for every market are in Predictions.
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 | WWDDW |
| 3 | Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 | DWWWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | DWDDW |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 | LDLWL |
| 9 | Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Hamburg | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | Paderborn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 14 | Ein Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 | LLLLW |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Mainz | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.10 | 3.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| Corners for / against | 5.2 / 5.1 | 8.5 / 3.7 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz | #8 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| Bayern Munich | #1 | 3.16 | 1.06 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
4.3 goals per meeting