Pre-match probabilities
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
AC Oulu host VPS on Wed 28 Oct at 16:00. AC Oulu are 4th in the table and VPS are 7th.
The model gives AC Oulu a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and VPS 33%. It expects 1.3 goals from AC Oulu and 1.2 from VPS, with a 45% chance of three or more goals and 50% that both teams score.
AC Oulu won 3, drew 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; VPS won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of AC Oulu's last 10 matches and 2 of VPS's last 10; both teams scored in 5 and 1 respectively.
At home this season AC Oulu have 6 wins from 14, scoring 1.1 a game; away from home VPS have 4 wins from 14, conceding 1.4 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, AC Oulu won 3, VPS won 3 and 0 games ended level, averaging 3.3 goals. The most recent, on Tue 8 Sept, finished VPS 1-0 AC Oulu.
Notable run: VPS, no draw in the last 16 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Under 3.5 goals, 76%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| AC Oulu win | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| VPS win | 33% | 3.06 |
| Home or draw | 67% | 1.48 | |
| No draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Away or draw | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 45% | 2.24 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.36 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Not both teams score | 50% | 2.01 |
| AC Oulu to score | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| VPS to score | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 32% | 3.10 | |
| AC Oulu clean sheet | 31% | 3.19 | |
| VPS clean sheet | 27% | 3.76 |
| Home leads at half-time | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Level at half-time | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both score 1st half | 18% | 5.48 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 24% | 4.10 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu win | 41% | 2.31 | 2.46 | -6.3% |
| VPS win | 33% | 2.76 | 3.06 | -9.9% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.26 | 3.74 | -12.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | – | 2.21 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | – | 1.83 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 35:20 | +15 | 55 | WDWLW |
| 2 | HJK | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 55:34 | +21 | 52 | DWWWD |
| 3 | KuPS | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 45:28 | +17 | 52 | WLLWD |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 36:37 | -1 | 43 | LWLWW |
| 5 | Gnistan | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 43:41 | +2 | 42 | DDLLL |
| 6 | Lahti | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 35:26 | +9 | 39 | WLDLW |
| 7 | VPS | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 31:34 | -3 | 39 | LLWLL |
| 8 | Ilves | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 45:39 | +6 | 38 | WWWDW |
| 9 | TPS | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 29:33 | -4 | 32 | DLLLL |
| 10 | SJK | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 29:37 | -8 | 27 | DDWWL |
| 11 | Jaro | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 24:50 | -26 | 25 | DWDDW |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 22:49 | -27 | 19 | LWLDD |
| 13 | PK-35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | AC Oulu | VPS |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Both teams score | 50%5/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Win | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Draw | 10%1/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 50%5/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Clean sheet | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.50 | 1.60 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | #10 | 1.27 | 1.39 |
| VPS | #8 | 1.22 | 1.26 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.3 goals per meeting