Pre-match probabilities
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Inter Turku host HJK on Thu 29 Oct at 16:00. Inter Turku are 1st in the table and HJK are 2nd.
The model gives Inter Turku a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and HJK 30%. It expects 1.5 goals from Inter Turku and 1.2 from HJK, with a 50% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Inter Turku won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; HJK won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Inter Turku's last 10 matches and 8 of HJK's last 10; both teams scored in 3 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Inter Turku have 7 wins from 14, scoring 1.0 a game; away from home HJK have 6 wins from 14, conceding 1.2 a game.
In their last 6 league meetings, Inter Turku won 1, HJK won 1 and 4 games ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Wed 9 Sept, finished HJK 2-1 Inter Turku.
Notable run: Inter Turku, under 3.5 goals in the last 14 home matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 74%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Inter Turku win | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| HJK win | 30% | 3.30 |
| Home or draw | 70% | 1.44 | |
| No draw | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Away or draw | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 41% | 2.46 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13% | 7.58 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Not both teams score | 47% | 2.15 |
| Inter Turku to score | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| HJK to score | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Inter Turku clean sheet | 31% | 3.26 | |
| HJK clean sheet | 23% | 4.41 |
| Home leads at half-time | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Level at half-time | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both score 1st half | 20% | 4.98 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 27% | 3.75 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 7% | |||
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | |||
| 3 | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Turku win | 44% | 2.21 | 2.26 | -2.3% |
| HJK win | 30% | 2.87 | 3.30 | -13.0% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.34 | 3.93 | -15.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | – | 2.01 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | – | 1.99 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 35:20 | +15 | 55 | WDWLW |
| 2 | HJK | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 55:34 | +21 | 52 | DWWWD |
| 3 | KuPS | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 45:28 | +17 | 52 | WLLWD |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 29 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 36:37 | -1 | 43 | LWLWW |
| 5 | Gnistan | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 43:41 | +2 | 42 | DDLLL |
| 6 | Lahti | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 35:26 | +9 | 39 | WLDLW |
| 7 | VPS | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 31:34 | -3 | 39 | LLWLL |
| 8 | Ilves | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 45:39 | +6 | 38 | WWWDW |
| 9 | TPS | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 29:33 | -4 | 32 | DLLLL |
| 10 | SJK | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 29:37 | -8 | 27 | DDWWL |
| 11 | Jaro | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 24:50 | -26 | 25 | DWDDW |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 22:49 | -27 | 19 | LWLDD |
| 13 | PK-35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Inter Turku | HJK |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10%1/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 30%3/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Draw | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Clean sheet | 70%7/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 0.60 | 1.10 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Turku | #3 | 1.44 | 0.87 |
| HJK | #1 | 2.00 | 1.25 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.0 goals per meeting