Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Pisa host Palermo on Wed 28 Oct at 18:00. Pisa are 6th in the table and Palermo are 1st.
The model gives Pisa a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Palermo 32%. It expects 1.4 goals from Pisa and 1.3 from Palermo, with a 51% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Pisa won 2, drew 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Palermo won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Pisa's last 10 matches and 6 of Palermo's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 7 respectively.
At home this season Pisa have 2 wins from 4, scoring 1.5 a game; away from home Palermo have 3 wins from 4, conceding 1.3 a game.
In their last 2 league meetings, Pisa won 2, Palermo won 0 and 0 games ended level, averaging 2.5 goals. The most recent, on Fri 31 Jan, finished Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Notable run: Palermo, unbeaten in the last 8 matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 77%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Pisa win | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Palermo win | 32% | 3.14 |
| Home or draw | 68% | 1.47 | |
| No draw | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away or draw | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 44% | 2.26 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 7.11 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.29 |
| Pisa to score | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Palermo to score | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Pisa clean sheet | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Palermo clean sheet | 23% | 4.27 |
| Home leads at half-time | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Level at half-time | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both score 1st half | 21% | 4.74 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 28% | 3.64 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over 8.5 corners | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over 10.5 corners | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Under 9.5 corners | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Under 10.5 corners | 53% | 1.87 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 7% | 5% | |||
| 1 | 8% | 13% | 8% | 3% | ||
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 3% | 4% | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa win | 40% | 2.27 | 2.50 | -9.1% |
| Palermo win | 32% | 2.88 | 3.14 | -8.3% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.33 | 3.56 | -6.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.69 | 1.95 | -13.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 | 2.05 | +0.5% |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18:8 | +10 | 22 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Mantova | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | +6 | 17 | WDWLW |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | +7 | 16 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Ascoli | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:6 | +8 | 15 | LWDDW |
| 5 | Benevento | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | +6 | 14 | WWWDW |
| 6 | Pisa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | +5 | 14 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Sudtirol | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | +3 | 13 | DWDLD |
| 8 | Juve Stabia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 12 | DDDWW |
| 9 | Avellino | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 11 | DLWDL |
| 10 | Padova | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 10 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Arezzo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8:17 | -9 | 10 | WLDWL |
| 12 | Verona | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 15:13 | +2 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Virtus Entella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:9 | +1 | 9 | WDDWL |
| 14 | Vicenza | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | -4 | 9 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Cesena | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8:12 | -4 | 8 | DDLDL |
| 16 | Carrarese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:9 | -2 | 7 | LLWWL |
| 17 | Empoli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7:13 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 6 | DDDLL |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:16 | -8 | 5 | LWLLD |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:20 | -11 | 4 | WLLDL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Pisa | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | 80%8/10 | 60%6/10 |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | 50%5/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goals scored / game | 2.00 | 2.10 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Corners for / against | 6.4 / 4.7 | 4.1 / 5.5 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa | #3 | 1.57 | 1.13 |
| Palermo | #1 | 1.59 | 1.04 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
2.5 goals per meeting