New York City

DLLDD23rd in table

23:30

Wed 28 Oct

Atlanta Utd

DLWLL28th in table

Pre-match probabilities

55%

New York City win

25%

Draw

20%

Atlanta Utd win

Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.

Pick

Home or draw

80%

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.96

50% over 2.5

Likeliest score

1-1

11.9% chance

Both teams score

51%

49% no

Match preview

Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster

New York City host Atlanta Utd on Wed 28 Oct at 23:30. New York City are 23rd in the table and Atlanta Utd are 28th.

The model gives New York City a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atlanta Utd 20%. It expects 1.7 goals from New York City and 1.0 from Atlanta Utd, with a 50% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.

New York City won 0, drew 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Atlanta Utd won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5.

Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of New York City's last 10 matches and 7 of Atlanta Utd's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 6 respectively.

At home this season New York City have 4 wins from 15, scoring 1.8 a game; away from home Atlanta Utd have 4 wins from 15, conceding 1.5 a game.

In their last 5 league meetings, New York City won 1, Atlanta Utd won 1 and 3 games ended level, averaging 4.2 goals. The most recent, on Sun 27 Sept, finished Atlanta Utd 2-2 New York City.

Notable run: Atlanta Utd, over 1.5 goals in the last 13 home matches in the league.

FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 80%.

Predictions

Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.

Result

New York City win	55%	1.82
Draw	25%	4.02
Atlanta Utd win	20%	4.96

Double chance

Home or draw	80%	1.25
No draw	75%	1.33
Away or draw	45%	2.22
Home draw-no-bet	73%	1.37
Away draw-no-bet	27%	3.72

Goals

Over 0.5 goals	93%	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	1.99
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.55
Over 4.5 goals	13%	7.45
Under 1.5 goals	25%	4.06
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Under 3.5 goals	72%	1.39

Both teams to score

Both teams score		51%	1.96
Not both teams score		49%	2.05

Team goals

New York City to score	82%	1.22
Home over 1.5	51%	1.94
Atlanta Utd to score	62%	1.63
Away over 1.5	25%	4.04
New York City clean sheet	38%	2.60
Atlanta Utd clean sheet	18%	5.61

First half

Home leads at half-time	41%	2.47
Level at half-time	41%	2.45
Away leads at half-time	19%	5.35
Over 0.5 goals 1st half	70%	1.43
Over 1.5 goals 1st half	34%	2.94
Both score 1st half	19%	5.30

Second half

Over 0.5 goals 2nd half	77%	1.30
Over 1.5 goals 2nd half	43%	2.31
Both score 2nd half	25%	3.99

Correct score

Atlanta Utd goals →

New York City goals →

	0	1	2
0	7%	6%	3%
1	11%	12%	5%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	6%	6%
4
5

Darker = more likely. Scores with under 3% are left blank; hover for the exact figure.

Likeliest scores

011-111.9%8.42
021-011.2%8.90
032-010.2%9.80
042-19.7%10.27
050-07.4%13.46
060-16.0%16.75

Odds vs model

Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price

Market	Model	Odds	Fair	Edge
New York City win	55%	1.73	1.82	-5.0%
Atlanta Utd win	20%	4.04	4.96	-18.5%
Draw	25%	3.87	4.02	-3.6%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	1.99	–
Under 2.5 goals	50%	–	2.01	–

MLS table

Current season, league matches only

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66:23	+43	70	WWWDW
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	63:32	+31	55	LDDWL
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	73:53	+20	55	LWWWL
4	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51:42	+9	55	LLWWW
5	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	58:47	+11	54	WLWDW
6	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	56:44	+12	51	WWDLL
7	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55:46	+9	51	WWLLW
8	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	52:45	+7	48	WDDDL
9	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	41:39	+2	48	LDDDD
10	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50:35	+15	47	LDWDD
11	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	55:48	+7	47	LWLDL
12	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62:50	+12	46	WWWDL
13	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	41:39	+2	43	WWLDD
14	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	42:41	+1	42	LDDDW
15	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64:71	-7	42	WLLWW
16	Orlando City	31	12	6	13	60:72	-12	42	LWDWD
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45:54	-9	41	WLWDD
18	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	48:48	0	39	WLDWW
19	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41:56	-15	39	LWLLW
20	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50:49	+1	38	WLWWW
21	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	54:58	-4	37	LDLDW
22	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48:59	-11	36	LWDWL
23	New York City	31	8	11	12	45:43	+2	35	DLLDD
24	San Diego FC	31	8	11	12	55:58	-3	35	DLDDD
25	Minnesota United	31	8	11	12	47:55	-8	35	LDDWD
26	Austin FC	31	8	10	13	40:57	-17	34	DLLLW
27	DC United	31	7	12	12	38:55	-17	33	LWLLL
28	Atlanta Utd	31	8	6	17	39:54	-15	30	DLWLL
29	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36:62	-26	25	WLLDL
30	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	37:77	-40	22	LDLLL

Last matches

League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score

New York City

0W 3D 2L

D25 OctAOrlando City2-2
D18 OctHLos Angeles FC1-1
L15 OctAInter Miami0-2
L10 OctAChicago Fire1-2
D27 SeptAAtlanta Utd2-2

Scored 6 (1.2/game)Conceded 9 (1.8/game)

Atlanta Utd

1W 1D 3L

L25 OctHChicago Fire2-3
L18 OctHInter Miami1-3
W15 OctACF Montreal3-0
L11 OctHFC Cincinnati1-3
D27 SeptHNew York City2-2

Scored 9 (1.8/game)Conceded 11 (2.2/game)

Pre-match stats

How often each event happened for each team

10 and 10 matches

Event	New York City	Atlanta Utd
Over 0.5 goals	90%9/10	90%9/10
Over 1.5 goals	80%8/10	80%8/10
Over 2.5 goals	40%4/10	70%7/10
Over 3.5 goals	20%2/10	60%6/10
Over 4.5 goals	0%0/10	20%2/10
Both teams score	60%6/10	60%6/10
Win	10%1/10	20%2/10
Draw	50%5/10	30%3/10
Loss	40%4/10	50%5/10
Clean sheet	20%2/10	30%3/10
Failed to score	30%3/10	20%2/10
Goal in 1st half	–	–
2+ goals in 1st half	–	–
Goals scored / game	1.00	1.40
Goals conceded / game	1.30	1.80

Team strength

Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side

Team	Rank	xGF	xGA
New York City	#11	1.44	1.31
Atlanta Utd	#27	1.26	1.64

New York City, last 5

1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded

Atlanta Utd, last 5

1.8 scored · 2.2 conceded

Trends

Current league runs of four matches or more

13Atlanta UtdOver 1.5 goals in the last 13 home matches
13Atlanta UtdConceded in the last 13 home matches
11New York CityOver 1.5 goals in the last 11 away matches
6New York CityWithout a win in the last 6 matches
6New York CityConceded in the last 6 matches
6New York CityWithout a win in the last 6 home matches
6Atlanta UtdScored in the last 6 matches
6Atlanta UtdWithout a win in the last 6 home matches
5New York CityOver 1.5 goals in the last 5 matches
5Atlanta UtdOver 2.5 goals in the last 5 matches

Head to head

Recent league meetings

New York City wins

Draws

Atlanta Utd wins

2026 · 09Atlanta Utd2-2New York City
2025 · 06New York City4-0Atlanta Utd
2025 · 03Atlanta Utd4-3New York City
2024 · 07Atlanta Utd2-2New York City
2024 · 04New York City1-1Atlanta Utd

4.2 goals per meeting

Frequently asked

What are the 1X2 probabilities for New York City v Atlanta Utd?: New York City 55%, draw 25%, Atlanta Utd 20%.
What are the over/under 2.5 goals probabilities?: Over 2.5: 50%. Under 2.5: 50%.
Will both teams score?: Yes: 51%. No: 49%.
What are the most likely scores?: 1) 1-1 (11.9%) 2) 1-0 (11.2%) 3) 2-0 (10.2%)
What is the FootballSeer prediction?: The likeliest of the main markets is Home or draw at 80%.

11%

12%

10%

Market

Model

Odds

Fair

Edge

New York City win

55%

1.73

1.82

-5.0%

Atlanta Utd win

20%

4.04

4.96

-18.5%

Draw

25%

3.87

4.02

-3.6%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

–

1.99

–

Under 2.5 goals

50%

–

2.01

–

Team

Goals

Pts

Nashville SC