Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
Toronto FC host DC United on Wed 28 Oct at 23:30. Toronto FC are 22nd in the table and DC United are 27th.
The model gives Toronto FC a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and DC United 23%. It expects 1.8 goals from Toronto FC and 1.1 from DC United, with a 56% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Toronto FC won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; DC United won 1, drew 0 and lost 4 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Toronto FC's last 10 matches and 7 of DC United's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 6 respectively.
At home this season Toronto FC have 5 wins from 16, scoring 2.1 a game; away from home DC United have 2 wins from 15, conceding 1.8 a game.
In their last 5 league meetings, Toronto FC won 1, DC United won 2 and 2 games ended level, averaging 3.4 goals. The most recent, on Sun 26 Jul, finished DC United 2-1 Toronto FC.
Notable run: Toronto FC, over 1.5 goals in the last 16 home matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 80%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| Toronto FC win | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| DC United win | 23% | 4.33 |
| Home or draw | 77% | 1.30 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Away or draw | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 30% | 3.28 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17% | 5.76 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.51 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Not both teams score | 43% | 2.33 |
| Toronto FC to score | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| DC United to score | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Toronto FC clean sheet | 32% | 3.09 | |
| DC United clean sheet | 16% | 6.09 |
| Home leads at half-time | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Level at half-time | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Both score 1st half | 22% | 4.52 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 29% | 3.44 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 5% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 9% | 11% | 6% | |||
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 6% | |||
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 3% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 53% | 1.92 | 1.90 | +1.2% |
| DC United win | 23% | 3.39 | 4.33 | -21.7% |
| Draw | 24% | 3.77 | 4.13 | -8.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | – | 1.78 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | – | 2.28 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 66:23 | +43 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 63:32 | +31 | 55 | LDDWL |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 73:53 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 51:42 | +9 | 55 | LLWWW |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 58:47 | +11 | 54 | WLWDW |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 56:44 | +12 | 51 | WWDLL |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 55:46 | +9 | 51 | WWLLW |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52:45 | +7 | 48 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 41:39 | +2 | 48 | LDDDD |
| 10 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50:35 | +15 | 47 | LDWDD |
| 11 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 55:48 | +7 | 47 | LWLDL |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 62:50 | +12 | 46 | WWWDL |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 41:39 | +2 | 43 | WWLDD |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42:41 | +1 | 42 | LDDDW |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 64:71 | -7 | 42 | WLLWW |
| 16 | Orlando City | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 60:72 | -12 | 42 | LWDWD |
| 17 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45:54 | -9 | 41 | WLWDD |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 48:48 | 0 | 39 | WLDWW |
| 19 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 41:56 | -15 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 20 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 50:49 | +1 | 38 | WLWWW |
| 21 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 54:58 | -4 | 37 | LDLDW |
| 22 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 48:59 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 23 | New York City | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 45:43 | +2 | 35 | DLLDD |
| 24 | San Diego FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 55:58 | -3 | 35 | DLDDD |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 47:55 | -8 | 35 | LDDWD |
| 26 | Austin FC | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 40:57 | -17 | 34 | DLLLW |
| 27 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 38:55 | -17 | 33 | LWLLL |
| 28 | Atlanta Utd | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 39:54 | -15 | 30 | DLWLL |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 36:62 | -26 | 25 | WLLDL |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 37:77 | -40 | 22 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | Toronto FC | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100%10/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 40%4/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 10%1/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 2.20 | 1.90 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | #25 | 1.37 | 1.63 |
| DC United | #28 | 1.20 | 1.80 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.4 goals per meeting