Austin FC

DLLLW26th in table

00:30

Thu 29 Oct

Real Salt Lake

WLDWW18th in table

Pre-match probabilities

38%

Austin FC win

27%

Draw

35%

Real Salt Lake win

Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.

Pick

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.33

51% over 2.5

Likeliest score

1-1

12.8% chance

Both teams score

56%

44% no

Match preview

Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster

Austin FC host Real Salt Lake on Thu 29 Oct at 00:30. Austin FC are 26th in the table and Real Salt Lake are 18th.

The model gives Austin FC a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Real Salt Lake 35%. It expects 1.4 goals from Austin FC and 1.3 from Real Salt Lake, with a 51% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.

Austin FC won 1, drew 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches; Real Salt Lake won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5.

Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Austin FC's last 10 matches and 7 of Real Salt Lake's last 10; both teams scored in 9 and 5 respectively.

At home this season Austin FC have 4 wins from 15, scoring 1.4 a game; away from home Real Salt Lake have 2 wins from 15, conceding 1.8 a game.

In their last 5 league meetings, Austin FC won 0, Real Salt Lake won 3 and 2 games ended level, averaging 3.8 goals. The most recent, on Sun 15 Mar, finished Real Salt Lake 2-1 Austin FC.

Notable run: Real Salt Lake, over 1.5 goals in the last 16 home matches in the league.

FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 76%.

Predictions

Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.

Result

Austin FC win	38%	2.66
Draw	27%	3.71
Real Salt Lake win	35%	2.82

Double chance

Home or draw	65%	1.55
No draw	73%	1.37
Away or draw	62%	1.60
Home draw-no-bet	51%	1.95
Away draw-no-bet	49%	2.06

Goals

Over 0.5 goals	93%	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.96
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.46
Over 4.5 goals	14%	7.18
Under 1.5 goals	24%	4.17
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.04
Under 3.5 goals	71%	1.41

Both teams to score

Both teams score		56%	1.79
Not both teams score		44%	2.26

Team goals

Austin FC to score	75%	1.34
Home over 1.5	40%	2.49
Real Salt Lake to score	74%	1.36
Away over 1.5	39%	2.59
Austin FC clean sheet	26%	3.80
Real Salt Lake clean sheet	25%	3.97

First half

Home leads at half-time	30%	3.35
Level at half-time	42%	2.41
Away leads at half-time	29%	3.50
Over 0.5 goals 1st half	71%	1.42
Over 1.5 goals 1st half	35%	2.90
Both score 1st half	21%	4.79

Second half

Over 0.5 goals 2nd half	78%	1.29
Over 1.5 goals 2nd half	44%	2.27
Both score 2nd half	28%	3.62

Correct score

Real Salt Lake goals →

Austin FC goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7%	8%	6%
1	9%	13%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%
3		4%
4
5

Darker = more likely. Scores with under 3% are left blank; hover for the exact figure.

Likeliest scores

011-112.8%7.80
021-08.5%11.74
032-18.4%11.89
040-18.2%12.17
051-28.1%12.29
060-07.2%13.79

Odds vs model

Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price

Market	Model	Odds	Fair	Edge
Austin FC win	38%	2.56	2.66	-3.9%
Real Salt Lake win	35%	2.39	2.82	-15.2%
Draw	27%	3.62	3.71	-2.3%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	1.96	–
Under 2.5 goals	49%	–	2.04	–

MLS table

Current season, league matches only

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66:23	+43	70	WWWDW
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	63:32	+31	55	LDDWL
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	73:53	+20	55	LWWWL
4	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51:42	+9	55	LLWWW
5	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	58:47	+11	54	WLWDW
6	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	56:44	+12	51	WWDLL
7	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55:46	+9	51	WWLLW
8	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	52:45	+7	48	WDDDL
9	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	41:39	+2	48	LDDDD
10	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50:35	+15	47	LDWDD
11	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	55:48	+7	47	LWLDL
12	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62:50	+12	46	WWWDL
13	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	41:39	+2	43	WWLDD
14	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	42:41	+1	42	LDDDW
15	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64:71	-7	42	WLLWW
16	Orlando City	31	12	6	13	60:72	-12	42	LWDWD
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45:54	-9	41	WLWDD
18	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	48:48	0	39	WLDWW
19	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41:56	-15	39	LWLLW
20	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50:49	+1	38	WLWWW
21	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	54:58	-4	37	LDLDW
22	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48:59	-11	36	LWDWL
23	New York City	31	8	11	12	45:43	+2	35	DLLDD
24	San Diego FC	31	8	11	12	55:58	-3	35	DLDDD
25	Minnesota United	31	8	11	12	47:55	-8	35	LDDWD
26	Austin FC	31	8	10	13	40:57	-17	34	DLLLW
27	DC United	31	7	12	12	38:55	-17	33	LWLLL
28	Atlanta Utd	31	8	6	17	39:54	-15	30	DLWLL
29	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36:62	-26	25	WLLDL
30	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	37:77	-40	22	LDLLL

Last matches

League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score

Austin FC

1W 1D 3L

W25 OctASporting Kansas City2-1
L18 OctHVancouver Whitecaps1-2
L15 OctALos Angeles FC1-3
L11 OctHNashville SC1-4
D27 SeptHSan Diego FC3-3

Scored 8 (1.6/game)Conceded 13 (2.6/game)

Real Salt Lake

3W 1D 1L

W25 OctHSt. Louis City3-0
W18 OctASporting Kansas City3-1
D15 OctHSan Jose Earthquakes1-1
L11 OctAPhiladelphia Union1-2
W27 SeptHNew England Revolution3-0

Scored 11 (2.2/game)Conceded 4 (0.8/game)

Pre-match stats

How often each event happened for each team

10 and 10 matches

Event	Austin FC	Real Salt Lake
Over 0.5 goals	90%9/10	100%10/10
Over 1.5 goals	90%9/10	100%10/10
Over 2.5 goals	70%7/10	70%7/10
Over 3.5 goals	30%3/10	20%2/10
Over 4.5 goals	20%2/10	0%0/10
Both teams score	90%9/10	50%5/10
Win	30%3/10	30%3/10
Draw	40%4/10	20%2/10
Loss	30%3/10	50%5/10
Clean sheet	10%1/10	20%2/10
Failed to score	10%1/10	30%3/10
Goal in 1st half	–	–
2+ goals in 1st half	–	–
Goals scored / game	1.40	1.40
Goals conceded / game	1.70	1.50

Team strength

Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side

Team	Rank	xGF	xGA
Austin FC	#26	1.26	1.61
Real Salt Lake	#19	1.43	1.49

Austin FC, last 5

1.6 scored · 2.6 conceded

Real Salt Lake, last 5

2.2 scored · 0.8 conceded

Trends

Current league runs of four matches or more

16Real Salt LakeOver 1.5 goals in the last 16 home matches
15Real Salt LakeConceded in the last 15 away matches
12Austin FCOver 1.5 goals in the last 12 home matches
12Austin FCScored in the last 12 home matches
10Real Salt LakeOver 1.5 goals in the last 10 matches
9Austin FCBoth teams scored in the last 9 home matches
7Austin FCWithout a win in the last 7 home matches
6Real Salt LakeNo draw in the last 6 away matches
5Austin FCOver 2.5 goals in the last 5 matches
5Austin FCBoth teams scored in the last 5 matches

Head to head

Recent league meetings

Austin FC wins

Draws

Real Salt Lake wins

2026 · 03Real Salt Lake2-1Austin FC
2025 · 09Real Salt Lake3-1Austin FC
2025 · 05Austin FC1-1Real Salt Lake
2024 · 09Austin FC2-2Real Salt Lake
2024 · 06Real Salt Lake5-1Austin FC

3.8 goals per meeting

Frequently asked

What are the 1X2 probabilities for Austin FC v Real Salt Lake?: Austin FC 38%, draw 27%, Real Salt Lake 35%.
What are the over/under 2.5 goals probabilities?: Over 2.5: 51%. Under 2.5: 49%.
Will both teams score?: Yes: 56%. No: 44%.
What are the most likely scores?: 1) 1-1 (12.8%) 2) 1-0 (8.5%) 3) 2-1 (8.4%)
What is the FootballSeer prediction?: The likeliest of the main markets is Over 1.5 goals at 76%.

13%

Market

Model

Odds

Fair

Edge

Austin FC win

38%

2.56

2.66

-3.9%

Real Salt Lake win

35%

2.39

2.82

-15.2%

Draw

27%

3.62

3.71

-2.3%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

–

1.96

–

Under 2.5 goals

49%

–

2.04

–

Team

Goals

Pts

Nashville SC