Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
FC Dallas host Columbus Crew on Thu 29 Oct at 00:30. FC Dallas are 5th in the table and Columbus Crew are 20th.
The model gives FC Dallas a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Columbus Crew 31%. It expects 1.8 goals from FC Dallas and 1.5 from Columbus Crew, with a 64% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
FC Dallas won 3, drew 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Columbus Crew won 4, drew 0 and lost 1 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of FC Dallas's last 10 matches and 7 of Columbus Crew's last 10; both teams scored in 6 and 6 respectively.
At home this season FC Dallas have 8 wins from 15, scoring 1.9 a game; away from home Columbus Crew have 3 wins from 15, conceding 2.0 a game.
Notable run: Columbus Crew, over 1.5 goals in the last 15 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 85%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| FC Dallas win | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Columbus Crew win | 31% | 3.19 |
| Home or draw | 69% | 1.46 | |
| No draw | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Away or draw | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 41% | 2.43 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15% | 6.56 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Not both teams score | 35% | 2.89 |
| FC Dallas to score | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Columbus Crew to score | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| FC Dallas clean sheet | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Columbus Crew clean sheet | 16% | 6.15 |
| Home leads at half-time | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Level at half-time | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both score 1st half | 27% | 3.66 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 35% | 2.83 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 1 | 6% | 10% | 7% | 4% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 4% | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas win | 45% | 1.97 | 2.23 | -11.5% |
| Columbus Crew win | 31% | 3.21 | 3.19 | +0.7% |
| Draw | 24% | 3.78 | 4.22 | -10.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | – | 1.56 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | – | 2.80 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 66:23 | +43 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 63:32 | +31 | 55 | LDDWL |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 73:53 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 51:42 | +9 | 55 | LLWWW |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 58:47 | +11 | 54 | WLWDW |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 56:44 | +12 | 51 | WWDLL |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 55:46 | +9 | 51 | WWLLW |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52:45 | +7 | 48 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 41:39 | +2 | 48 | LDDDD |
| 10 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50:35 | +15 | 47 | LDWDD |
| 11 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 55:48 | +7 | 47 | LWLDL |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 62:50 | +12 | 46 | WWWDL |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 41:39 | +2 | 43 | WWLDD |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42:41 | +1 | 42 | LDDDW |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 64:71 | -7 | 42 | WLLWW |
| 16 | Orlando City | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 60:72 | -12 | 42 | LWDWD |
| 17 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45:54 | -9 | 41 | WLWDD |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 48:48 | 0 | 39 | WLDWW |
| 19 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 41:56 | -15 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 20 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 50:49 | +1 | 38 | WLWWW |
| 21 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 54:58 | -4 | 37 | LDLDW |
| 22 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 48:59 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 23 | New York City | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 45:43 | +2 | 35 | DLLDD |
| 24 | San Diego FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 55:58 | -3 | 35 | DLDDD |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 47:55 | -8 | 35 | LDDWD |
| 26 | Austin FC | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 40:57 | -17 | 34 | DLLLW |
| 27 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 38:55 | -17 | 33 | LWLLL |
| 28 | Atlanta Utd | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 39:54 | -15 | 30 | DLWLL |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 36:62 | -26 | 25 | WLLDL |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 37:77 | -40 | 22 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | FC Dallas | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 100%10/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 30%3/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Both teams score | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Win | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 0%0/10 |
| Loss | 10%1/10 | 40%4/10 |
| Clean sheet | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Failed to score | 10%1/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.30 | 1.30 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | #10 | 1.69 | 1.56 |
| Columbus Crew | #6 | 1.66 | 1.47 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
These teams have not met in the league in the last three seasons.