Minnesota United

LDDWD25th in table

00:30

Thu 29 Oct

Sporting Kansas City

LDLLL30th in table

Pre-match probabilities

65%

Minnesota United win

18%

Draw

17%

Sporting Kansas City win

Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.

Pick

Home or draw

83%

Expected goals

2.53 – 1.24

73% over 2.5

Likeliest score

2-1

9.2% chance

Both teams score

66%

34% no

Match preview

Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster

Minnesota United host Sporting Kansas City on Thu 29 Oct at 00:30. Minnesota United are 25th in the table and Sporting Kansas City are 30th.

The model gives Minnesota United a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sporting Kansas City 17%. It expects 2.5 goals from Minnesota United and 1.2 from Sporting Kansas City, with a 73% chance of three or more goals and 66% that both teams score.

Minnesota United won 1, drew 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Sporting Kansas City won 0, drew 1 and lost 4 of their last 5.

Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Minnesota United's last 10 matches and 9 of Sporting Kansas City's last 10; both teams scored in 9 and 7 respectively.

At home this season Minnesota United have 3 wins from 15, scoring 1.3 a game; away from home Sporting Kansas City have 3 wins from 15, conceding 2.9 a game.

In their last 6 league meetings, Minnesota United won 4, Sporting Kansas City won 1 and 1 game ended level, averaging 3.5 goals. The most recent, on Thu 23 Jul, finished Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Minnesota United.

Notable run: Sporting Kansas City, over 1.5 goals in the last 28 matches in the league.

FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 83%.

Predictions

Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.

Result

Minnesota United win	65%	1.53
Draw	18%	5.46
Sporting Kansas City win	17%	6.06

Double chance

Home or draw	83%	1.20
No draw	82%	1.22
Away or draw	35%	2.87
Home draw-no-bet	80%	1.25
Away draw-no-bet	20%	4.95

Goals

Over 0.5 goals	97%	1.03
Over 1.5 goals	89%	1.12
Over 2.5 goals	73%	1.38
Over 3.5 goals	52%	1.92
Over 4.5 goals	33%	3.07
Under 1.5 goals	11%	9.40
Under 2.5 goals	27%	3.65
Under 3.5 goals	48%	2.08

Both teams to score

Both teams score		66%	1.52
Not both teams score		34%	2.91

Team goals

Minnesota United to score	92%	1.09
Home over 1.5	72%	1.39
Sporting Kansas City to score	71%	1.41
Away over 1.5	35%	2.86
Minnesota United clean sheet	29%	3.44
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet	8%	12.58

First half

Home leads at half-time	50%	2.00
Level at half-time	32%	3.13
Away leads at half-time	18%	5.56
Over 0.5 goals 1st half	82%	1.22
Over 1.5 goals 1st half	51%	1.98
Both score 1st half	29%	3.45

Second half

Over 0.5 goals 2nd half	87%	1.14
Over 1.5 goals 2nd half	61%	1.63
Both score 2nd half	37%	2.70

Correct score

Sporting Kansas City goals →

Minnesota United goals →

	0	1	2
0
1	5%	8%	4%
2	7%	9%	6%
3	6%	8%	5%
4	4%	5%	3%
5

Darker = more likely. Scores with under 3% are left blank; hover for the exact figure.

Likeliest scores

012-19.2%10.93
023-17.7%12.94
031-17.6%13.16
042-07.4%13.50
053-06.3%16.00
062-25.7%17.70

Odds vs model

Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price

Market	Model	Odds	Fair	Edge
Minnesota United win	65%	1.39	1.53	-9.4%
Sporting Kansas City win	17%	6.07	6.06	+0.2%
Draw	18%	4.96	5.46	-9.1%
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	1.38	–
Under 2.5 goals	27%	–	3.65	–

MLS table

Current season, league matches only

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66:23	+43	70	WWWDW
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	63:32	+31	55	LDDWL
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	73:53	+20	55	LWWWL
4	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51:42	+9	55	LLWWW
5	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	58:47	+11	54	WLWDW
6	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	56:44	+12	51	WWDLL
7	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55:46	+9	51	WWLLW
8	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	52:45	+7	48	WDDDL
9	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	41:39	+2	48	LDDDD
10	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50:35	+15	47	LDWDD
11	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	55:48	+7	47	LWLDL
12	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62:50	+12	46	WWWDL
13	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	41:39	+2	43	WWLDD
14	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	42:41	+1	42	LDDDW
15	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64:71	-7	42	WLLWW
16	Orlando City	31	12	6	13	60:72	-12	42	LWDWD
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45:54	-9	41	WLWDD
18	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	48:48	0	39	WLDWW
19	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41:56	-15	39	LWLLW
20	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50:49	+1	38	WLWWW
21	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	54:58	-4	37	LDLDW
22	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48:59	-11	36	LWDWL
23	New York City	31	8	11	12	45:43	+2	35	DLLDD
24	San Diego FC	31	8	11	12	55:58	-3	35	DLDDD
25	Minnesota United	31	8	11	12	47:55	-8	35	LDDWD
26	Austin FC	31	8	10	13	40:57	-17	34	DLLLW
27	DC United	31	7	12	12	38:55	-17	33	LWLLL
28	Atlanta Utd	31	8	6	17	39:54	-15	30	DLWLL
29	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36:62	-26	25	WLLDL
30	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	37:77	-40	22	LDLLL

Last matches

League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score