San Jose Earthquakes

WDDDL8th in table

02:30

Thu 29 Oct

Colorado Rapids

LDDDW14th in table

Pre-match probabilities

46%

San Jose Earthquakes win

25%

Draw

29%

Colorado Rapids win

Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.

Pick

Over 1.5 goals

81%

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.32

59% over 2.5

Likeliest score

1-1

11.4% chance

Both teams score

61%

39% no

Match preview

Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster

San Jose Earthquakes host Colorado Rapids on Thu 29 Oct at 02:30. San Jose Earthquakes are 8th in the table and Colorado Rapids are 14th.

The model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Colorado Rapids 29%. It expects 1.7 goals from San Jose Earthquakes and 1.3 from Colorado Rapids, with a 59% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.

San Jose Earthquakes won 1, drew 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches; Colorado Rapids won 1, drew 3 and lost 1 of their last 5.

Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 10 matches and 4 of Colorado Rapids's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 5 respectively.

At home this season San Jose Earthquakes have 6 wins from 15, scoring 1.7 a game; away from home Colorado Rapids have 2 wins from 15, conceding 1.7 a game.

In their last 5 league meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 2, Colorado Rapids won 2 and 1 game ended level, averaging 3.0 goals. The most recent, on Sun 11 Oct, finished Colorado Rapids 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.

Notable run: Colorado Rapids, scored in the last 11 home matches in the league.

FootballSeer's pick: Over 1.5 goals, 81%.

Predictions

Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.

Result

San Jose Earthquakes win	46%	2.16
Draw	25%	4.05
Colorado Rapids win	29%	3.46

Double chance

Home or draw	71%	1.41
No draw	75%	1.33
Away or draw	54%	1.87
Home draw-no-bet	62%	1.62
Away draw-no-bet	38%	2.60

Goals

Over 0.5 goals	95%	1.06
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.76
Over 4.5 goals	19%	5.21
Under 1.5 goals	19%	5.34
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.42
Under 3.5 goals	64%	1.57

Both teams to score

Both teams score		61%	1.65
Not both teams score		39%	2.55

Team goals

San Jose Earthquakes to score	82%	1.22
Home over 1.5	51%	1.95
Colorado Rapids to score	73%	1.36
Away over 1.5	38%	2.63
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet	27%	3.74
Colorado Rapids clean sheet	18%	5.60

First half

Home leads at half-time	36%	2.76
Level at half-time	39%	2.59
Away leads at half-time	25%	3.96
Over 0.5 goals 1st half	75%	1.34
Over 1.5 goals 1st half	40%	2.52
Both score 1st half	24%	4.14

Second half

Over 0.5 goals 2nd half	81%	1.23
Over 1.5 goals 2nd half	50%	2.01
Both score 2nd half	32%	3.16

Correct score

Colorado Rapids goals →

San Jose Earthquakes goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	5%	6%	4%
1	8%	11%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%
3	4%	5%	4%
4
5

Darker = more likely. Scores with under 3% are left blank; hover for the exact figure.

Likeliest scores

011-111.4%8.77
022-19.3%10.71
031-07.7%13.05
041-27.2%13.97
052-07.1%14.12
062-26.2%16.21

Odds vs model

Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price

Market	Model	Odds	Fair	Edge
San Jose Earthquakes win	46%	2.09	2.16	-3.0%
Colorado Rapids win	29%	3.01	3.46	-13.0%
Draw	25%	3.64	4.05	-10.1%
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	1.71	–
Under 2.5 goals	41%	–	2.42	–

MLS table

Current season, league matches only

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66:23	+43	70	WWWDW
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	63:32	+31	55	LDDWL
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	73:53	+20	55	LWWWL
4	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51:42	+9	55	LLWWW
5	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	58:47	+11	54	WLWDW
6	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	56:44	+12	51	WWDLL
7	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55:46	+9	51	WWLLW
8	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	52:45	+7	48	WDDDL
9	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	41:39	+2	48	LDDDD
10	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50:35	+15	47	LDWDD
11	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	55:48	+7	47	LWLDL
12	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62:50	+12	46	WWWDL
13	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	41:39	+2	43	WWLDD
14	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	42:41	+1	42	LDDDW
15	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64:71	-7	42	WLLWW
16	Orlando City	31	12	6	13	60:72	-12	42	LWDWD
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45:54	-9	41	WLWDD
18	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	48:48	0	39	WLDWW
19	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41:56	-15	39	LWLLW
20	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50:49	+1	38	WLWWW
21	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	54:58	-4	37	LDLDW
22	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48:59	-11	36	LWDWL
23	New York City	31	8	11	12	45:43	+2	35	DLLDD
24	San Diego FC	31	8	11	12	55:58	-3	35	DLDDD
25	Minnesota United	31	8	11	12	47:55	-8	35	LDDWD
26	Austin FC	31	8	10	13	40:57	-17	34	DLLLW
27	DC United	31	7	12	12	38:55	-17	33	LWLLL
28	Atlanta Utd	31	8	6	17	39:54	-15	30	DLWLL
29	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36:62	-26	25	WLLDL
30	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	37:77	-40	22	LDLLL

Last matches

League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score