Pre-match probabilities
Live score, stats and line-ups appear here from kick-off.
Written from the model and the league record, not by a tipster
St. Louis City host Portland Timbers on Thu 29 Oct at 00:30. St. Louis City are 6th in the table and Portland Timbers are 21st.
The model gives St. Louis City a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Portland Timbers 27%. It expects 2.0 goals from St. Louis City and 1.4 from Portland Timbers, with a 67% chance of three or more goals and 67% that both teams score.
St. Louis City won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches; Portland Timbers won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of their last 5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of St. Louis City's last 10 matches and 7 of Portland Timbers's last 10; both teams scored in 7 and 7 respectively.
At home this season St. Louis City have 9 wins from 15, scoring 2.3 a game; away from home Portland Timbers have 2 wins from 15, conceding 2.1 a game.
In their last 5 league meetings, St. Louis City won 1, Portland Timbers won 1 and 3 games ended level, averaging 3.6 goals. The most recent, on Thu 10 Sept, finished Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City.
Notable run: Portland Timbers, over 1.5 goals in the last 15 away matches in the league.
FootballSeer's pick: Home or draw, 73%.
Every market comes from the same scoreline probabilities. Right column: fair odds.
| St. Louis City win | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Portland Timbers win | 27% | 3.72 |
| Home or draw | 73% | 1.37 | |
| No draw | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Away or draw | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Home draw-no-bet | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Away draw-no-bet | 35% | 2.89 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.16 | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13% | 7.44 | |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Not both teams score | 33% | 3.01 |
| St. Louis City to score | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Home over 1.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Portland Timbers to score | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Away over 1.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| St. Louis City clean sheet | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Portland Timbers clean sheet | 13% | 7.60 |
| Home leads at half-time | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Level at half-time | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Away leads at half-time | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over 0.5 goals 1st half | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 1st half | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both score 1st half | 29% | 3.50 |
| Over 0.5 goals 2nd half | 85% | 1.17 | |
| Over 1.5 goals 2nd half | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both score 2nd half | 37% | 2.72 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | |||
| 1 | 6% | 10% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | ||
| 3 | 4% | 6% | 5% | |||
| 4 | 3% | |||||
| 5 |
Average bookmaker odds against the model's fair price
| Market | Model | Odds | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City win | 51% | 1.72 | 1.97 | -12.8% |
| Portland Timbers win | 27% | 3.85 | 3.72 | +3.5% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.11 | 4.46 | -7.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | – | 1.48 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | – | 3.06 | – |
Current season, league matches only
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 66:23 | +43 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 63:32 | +31 | 55 | LDDWL |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 73:53 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 51:42 | +9 | 55 | LLWWW |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 58:47 | +11 | 54 | WLWDW |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 56:44 | +12 | 51 | WWDLL |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 55:46 | +9 | 51 | WWLLW |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52:45 | +7 | 48 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 41:39 | +2 | 48 | LDDDD |
| 10 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50:35 | +15 | 47 | LDWDD |
| 11 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 55:48 | +7 | 47 | LWLDL |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 62:50 | +12 | 46 | WWWDL |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 41:39 | +2 | 43 | WWLDD |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42:41 | +1 | 42 | LDDDW |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 64:71 | -7 | 42 | WLLWW |
| 16 | Orlando City | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 60:72 | -12 | 42 | LWDWD |
| 17 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45:54 | -9 | 41 | WLWDD |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 48:48 | 0 | 39 | WLDWW |
| 19 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 41:56 | -15 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 20 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 50:49 | +1 | 38 | WLWWW |
| 21 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 54:58 | -4 | 37 | LDLDW |
| 22 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 48:59 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 23 | New York City | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 45:43 | +2 | 35 | DLLDD |
| 24 | San Diego FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 55:58 | -3 | 35 | DLDDD |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 47:55 | -8 | 35 | LDDWD |
| 26 | Austin FC | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 40:57 | -17 | 34 | DLLLW |
| 27 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 38:55 | -17 | 33 | LWLLL |
| 28 | Atlanta Utd | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 39:54 | -15 | 30 | DLWLL |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 36:62 | -26 | 25 | WLLDL |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 37:77 | -40 | 22 | LDLLL |
League matches; H/A is venue, HT the half-time score
How often each event happened for each team
| Event | St. Louis City | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 90%9/10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 80%8/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90%9/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 40%4/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Both teams score | 70%7/10 | 70%7/10 |
| Win | 50%5/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Draw | 30%3/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Loss | 20%2/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 20%2/10 | 10%1/10 |
| Failed to score | 20%2/10 | 30%3/10 |
| Goal in 1st half | – | – |
| 2+ goals in 1st half | – | – |
| Goals scored / game | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded / game | 1.70 | 2.10 |
Model ratings: expected goals for and against a league-average side
| Team | Rank | xGF | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | #13 | 1.64 | 1.60 |
| Portland Timbers | #22 | 1.56 | 1.69 |
Current league runs of four matches or more
Recent league meetings
3.6 goals per meeting